20,000?

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Re:20,000???????

« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2004, 09:08:51 PM »
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Quote from: thewaka on July 27, 2004, 12:27:46 PM
There is no Sept. 2006 deadline.
Diana
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Quote from: O-Ren Ishii on July 27, 2004, 05:10:40 PM
From the FSP FAQ, circa Feb. 2002:

http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=48;action=display;threadid=6489;start=30
Q. What is the time frame for the Free State Project?

A. The Participation Guidelines state that a signature on the Statement of Intent becomes void, and must be renewed by the signer, if three years pass before we reach 5,000 members and select the state. The Participation Guidelines also state that once we reach 20,000 members, everyone has five years to move to the selected state. The Participation Guidelines do not specify a requisite time period between reaching 5,000 members and reaching 20,000 members. However, the assumption has always been that if 20,000 is not close at hand within five years of the launch of the Free State Project (officially September 1st, 2001), the Project will fold. To get 20,000 signers by September 2006, we will need approximately 15 new signatures per day on average...
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Blefuscu

Yes, it should be clear from the portion of the FAQ that you posted that there is no 2006 deadline. The assumption that has always been may not be now.
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Wow, this is too funny. Some FSPers don't even know what they committed to, and are trying to deceive others about the commitment!

Blefuscu, did you happen to see the big announcement press conference the FSP gave Oct. 1 2003 to declare New Hampshire was chosen as the free state? They have the video archived Of course they edited those videos, but I have an unedited version. Here are some good quotes from the press conference:


Donna Delacruz, associated press
"What happens if within 5 year you do not get the 20,000 people to move to New Hampshire?"

Jason P Sorens
"If we don't get 20,000 by September 2006, then people don't necessarily, they aren't held to their obligations for signing up. So, many have said they are going to move whether or not we reach 20,000 and our current projections show that we will reach 20,000 by 2006.So, if we don't meet the 20,000, the movement may fold into some other form, though it looks as if we will."

John Lieberman, Sinclair broadcasting
"What sort of timeframe are you looking at to have some sort of measurable effect politically in New Hampshire?"

Jason P Sorens
"Some Plans have already been laid, and are in the making. I think we will start have an effect rather soon actually in New Hampshire. Because of its open political system, we can have an effect rather quickly. I expect that we will have a measurable effect in the state house perhaps as soon as the 2004 elections. We already have some supporters in the state legislature and many people are moving to New Hampshire quite soon, or will be running campaigns there. The time table is long run of course. This is a long run project. I hope to live and hopefully die in New Hampshire, and I think many of our members think the same way. We want to make New Hampshire our home, and so we are willing to stick it out for the long run."

Anon Reporter?
"I noticed in the paperwork here that you had 5000 possible ballots, and 2388 people voted, and of them is it 53% of them that say they are going to move within 2 years?"

Jason P Sorens
"That's right, within three years."

Anon Reporter?
"So, I'm wondering what you are basing your projections on, that you’re confident that you will reach the 2006 deadline."

Jason P Sorens
"Our membership growth has proceeded geometrically as rather than too linearly. Our first year we had less than 1000 members and in the year since them we gotten over 4000 members. The best trend we've been able to predict, based on weekly averages in term of signups are that we will reach 20,000 between late 2005 and late 2006. The turn out was intentionally low, because we wanted to make it difficult to vote, he, because we wanted our members to put a lot of thought into it, and we wanted people who cared most about the outcome to have an effect. So, there where various factors influencing the outcome of the vote including many ballots were delivered late to members, many members where out of town, or out of the country, we required ballots to be notarized, and many members were not able to get to a notary. And the balloting period was quite short. Because we wanted to choose the state and have it decided. All those factors influenced the low turnout. We will be contacting people how didn't vote to make sure they are committed to the free state project, because we want people who are committed to moving, not just people who sign up on a whim, so we are going to make sure our members are committed."

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Where to start......

Looks like FSP won't meet the deadline and members will not be held to the moving obligation.

Jason, what is geometric growth? I think you meant exponential. But FSP membership growth reached a plateau shortly after the vote, and New Hampshire was chosen. You don't even have linear growth now. FSP barely has growth.

Amanda Philips claimed the FSP had 6000 members at the June 19th meeting in Grafton. It is almost two months later and FSP still has not reached 6000. But let us assume they do have 6000 members. The current number of new members per week is about 17. At that rate FSP will not reach 20,000 members until almost 2020. If FSP wants to meet the Sept. 2006 deadline they will need about 230 new members a week.

WOW, who wanted to make it difficult to vote Jason? Who is this “we”, do you have a mouse in your pocket or something? Surely it was not all FSP members that wanted it to be difficult to vote. Do you mean the board wanted it to be difficult to vote? Don't trust your own members to vote? How many members did you piss off and lose because of that? Less than half voted? Or do members not care that you did not want them to vote? Or are there not 5000 FSP members? And then there are the opt-outs.

I want to know what the real number of FSP members is. My Guess is less than 3000. And not many people visit the online forum. It is a very low traffic Internet board. Very rarely are more than 50 people on line at a time, and that number would include visitors as well. And it is usually the same few people that post.